New Poll Shows Conservatives Can’t Win Next Election Without a Climate Plan

Can Conservatives win the next election without a real climate plan? Not likely, according to the results of a new Clean Prosperity/Leger poll.

A new leader for the Conservative Party should take climate change much more seriously if they hope to expand their voter base in the 905 region around Toronto, according to a new poll from Leger sponsored by Canadians for Clean Prosperity.

Among the universe of potential Conservative voters in the 905 (that is, those who didn’t vote conservative in the last election but are either likely to switch or open to the possibility), 63% said they couldn’t vote for a federal party unless they have a strong plan for addressing climate change. And 28% of the same group said they’d be more likely to support the party if it had a more credible climate plan, while only 11% said they’d be less likely.

“The data here is clear: a credible climate plan is now table stakes for many Canadians, including the swing voters the Conservatives most need on their side,” says Michael Bernstein, the executive director of Clean Prosperity. “These voters want a credible climate plan, and it’s time for the Conservative Party of Canada and its next leader to give them one.”

The poll, which was conducted by past Conservative Party of Canada pollster Andrew Enns at Leger, also revealed that 36% of potential Conservative voters chose climate change and its effects on Canada as the top voting priority (20%) or second highest priority (16%). “The Conservative Party’s path to victory runs right through these 905-region voters,” Bernstein says, “and it can’t afford to ignore their concerns.”

Key Facts:

  • Climate change was the top issue for swing voters considering the Conservative Party of Canada, with 14% mentioning climate change and the environment as their top issue (unaided) and 36% ranking it among their top two from a list of 2019’s key election issues.
  • 63% of potential Conservative voters said they could not vote for a party if they didn’t have a strong climate plan.
  • 77% of potential Conservative voters said that they were “worried” about climate change, with 28% saying they were “very worried.”

Methodology:

  • An online survey methodology consisting of 3,013 surveys, was selected for this study. The survey was programmed on to Leger’s secure web survey platform and administered to respondents via an online panel. Due to the size of this survey, two reputable online panel companies supported this study—Leger’s LEO panel along with Dynata.
  • The survey was conducted online January 16th to February 2nd, 2020
  • Since the research is conducted online, the sample is considered to be non-probability and therefore, margins of error are not applicable.
  • For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of a survey size of 3,013 cases with this sample plan carries a theoretical confidence interval of approximately +/- 1.9 percent, 19 times out of 20. At the sub-group level, samples of 1000 cases theoretically have a margin of error of +/-3.1% 19 times out of 20.
  • Of the full voter pool, 31% said they voted for the Conservatives in the 2019 election, 31% said they would never consider voting Conservative, and the remaining 39% were classified as “potential Conservative voters” based on their answers to a series of survey questions (e.g. selecting Conservatives as their 2nd voting chance in the 2019 election).

If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Andrew Enns, Executive Vice President, Leger, or Michael Bernstein, Executive Director of Clean Prosperity.

For more information, please contact us.

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