Impact on Emissions
According to a report we’ve released with Enviroeconomics, the Conservative Climate Plan (hereafter “The Plan”) would increase emissions by 15 MT relative to the latest “business as usual” scenario released by Environment Canada. That’s because The Plan would cancel several active emissions-reductions programs, replacing them with alternative programs that will reduce fewer carbon emissions (see Figure 1).
Total Cost of the Plan
The initiatives announced in The Plan will have a net cost of $700 million. That’s because it would cost $1.43 billion to implement the new programs that were announced, but those costs will be partially offset by cancelling several existing initiatives that had a cost of $722 million (see Figure 2).
Cost to Households
The plan would cost the average household in most provinces $295 by 2022 – driven by the removal of the carbon rebates (loss of ~$100) and the addition of the Green Home Tax Credit (cost of ~$200). Provinces without a form of the federal carbon tax and rebate policy (e.g. Quebec, British Columbia) would be less adversely impacted because they will not lose the carbon rebate.
Impact on 2030 Paris Targets
The initiatives in the Plan would increase the gap to our 2030 international climate commitment as outlined in the Paris Treaty. The current baseline scenario already has a gap of 80 MT. The Plan analyzed here would increase that gap by 30 MT, leaving a gap of 109 MT (see figure 3).